State-led climate action can cut emissions at near-federal costs but favors different technologies

Gavin Mouat, Christopher Galik, Aranya Venkatesh, Katherine Jordan, Aditya Sinha, Paulina Jaramillo and Jeremiah X. Johnson ()
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Gavin Mouat: North Carolina State University
Christopher Galik: North Carolina State University
Aranya Venkatesh: Carnegie Mellon University
Katherine Jordan: Carnegie Mellon University
Aditya Sinha: North Carolina State University
Paulina Jaramillo: Carnegie Mellon University
Jeremiah X. Johnson: North Carolina State University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract In the absence of comprehensive federal greenhouse gas mitigation policy, state-led strategies may play a pivotal role, particularly following the 2024 United States presidential election. Using a detailed energy system optimization model, we examine the outcomes of 23 climate-minded states pursuing net-zero emissions targets compared to a federal carbon cap achieving equivalent CO2-eq reductions. Here we show that state-led decarbonization results in distinct technology choices, a 0.7% increase in system costs, and nationwide emissions reduction of 46% — substantial, but insufficient for ambitious climate goals. This pathway relies more on electrification, with 952 terawatt-hours more generation in 2050, reallocating 17.2% of emissions to the power sector. Some regions favor solar, wind, and storage, while direct air capture emerges as critical, particularly in California and the Northeast. Inter-regional trading supports and complicates mitigation efforts, underscoring the need for careful policy design. Overall, our findings highlight how state-led and federal decarbonization approaches can yield differing energy portfolios to achieve similar emissions reductions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59696-0

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