Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets

Wenjie Dong (), Qi Ran, Fei Liu, Rong Deng, Jie Yang, Kaixi Wang, Xinyue Wang, Duofan Zheng, Chenhao Li, Wenjun Liang, Jieming Chou, Wenping Yuan and Deliang Chen
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Wenjie Dong: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Qi Ran: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Fei Liu: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Rong Deng: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Jie Yang: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Kaixi Wang: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Xinyue Wang: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Duofan Zheng: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Chenhao Li: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Wenjun Liang: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Jieming Chou: Beijing Normal University
Wenping Yuan: Peking University
Deliang Chen: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO2 emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001–2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO2 emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03–0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO2 emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59877-x

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