Spatiotemporal assessment of renewable adequacy during diverse extreme weather events in China

Kai Jiang, Nian Liu (), Kunyu Wang, Yubing Chen, Jianxiao Wang () and Yu Liu ()
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Kai Jiang: North China Electric Power University
Nian Liu: North China Electric Power University
Kunyu Wang: North China Electric Power University
Yubing Chen: North China Electric Power University
Jianxiao Wang: Peking University
Yu Liu: Peking University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract China has one of the world’s largest wind and solar energy capacity worldwide; however, frequent extreme weather events remain major challenges to power systems. This study provides a nuanced examination of power balance issues on seven extreme weather types that occurred from 2020 to 2050. Utilizing an advanced metric for renewable adequacy and a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,089,891 alert records from 2843 counties, the results indicate that both adequacy surplus and deficit coexist in power systems under extreme weather conditions. In 2020, extreme weather led to a reduction in renewable energy by 31.79 TWh. Projections indicate this could rise to 263.61 TWh by 2050, equivalent to the combined annual electricity consumption in 2020 of Beijing and Shanghai, China’s two largest cities. An extensive analysis that includes 4 evolutionary paths and 45 load conditions suggests that the average demand for provincial flexibility during extreme weather is projected to peak at 11.03 GW in 2050.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-60264-9

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