Arctic speleothems reveal nearly permafrost-free Northern Hemisphere in the late Miocene

Anton Vaks, Andrew Mason, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach (), Alena Giesche, Alexander Osinzev, Irina Adrian, Aleksandr Kononov, Stuart Umbo, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Marcelo Rosensaft and Gideon M. Henderson
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Anton Vaks: Geological Survey of Israel
Andrew Mason: Oxford University
Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach: Northumbria University
Alena Giesche: Alaska Science Center
Alexander Osinzev: Speleoclub Arabika
Irina Adrian: Lena Delta Wildlife Reserve
Aleksandr Kononov: Irkutsk National Research Technical University
Stuart Umbo: Northumbria University
Franziska A. Lechleitner: Biochemistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
Marcelo Rosensaft: Geological Survey of Israel
Gideon M. Henderson: Oxford University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Arctic warming is happening at nearly four times the global average rate. Long-term trends of permafrost dynamics cannot be estimated directly from monitoring of present-day thaw processes, requiring paleoclimate-proxy information. Here we use cave carbonates (speleothems) from a northern Siberian cave to determine when the Northern Hemisphere was mostly permafrost-free. At present, thick continuous permafrost in this region prevents speleothem growth. In a series of partially eroded caves, speleothems grew during the late Tortonian stage (8.68 ± 0.09 Ma), a time when the geographic position of this site was already similar to today. Paleotemperatures reconstructed from speleothems show that mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) in the region were + 6.6°C to + 11.1°C, when contemporary global MAAT were ~ 4.5 °C higher than modern. Our findings provide direct evidence that warming to Tortonian-like temperatures would leave most of the Northern Hemisphere permafrost-free. This may release up to ~ 130 petagrams of carbon, enhancing further warming.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-60381-5

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