Separating CO2 emission from removal targets comes with limited cost impacts

Anne Merfort (), Jessica Strefler, Gabriel Abrahão, Nico Bauer, Tabea Dorndorf, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Leon Merfort and Ottmar Edenhofer
Additional contact information
Anne Merfort: Member of the Leibniz Association
Jessica Strefler: Member of the Leibniz Association
Gabriel Abrahão: Member of the Leibniz Association
Nico Bauer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Tabea Dorndorf: Member of the Leibniz Association
Elmar Kriegler: Member of the Leibniz Association
Gunnar Luderer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Leon Merfort: Member of the Leibniz Association
Ottmar Edenhofer: Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Net-zero commitments have become the focal point for countries to communicate long-term climate targets. However, to this point it is not clear to what extent conventional emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will contribute to net-zero. An integrated market for emissions and removals with a uniform carbon price delivers the economically efficient contribution of CDR to net-zero. Yet it might not fully internalise sustainability risks of CDR and hence could lead to its overuse. In this study, we explore the implications of separating targets for emissions and for removals delivered by novel CDR in global net-zero emissions pathways with the Integrated Assessment Model REMIND. We find that overall efficiency losses induced by such separation are moderate. Furthermore, limiting the CDR target comes with increasing emission prices but also significant benefits: lower cumulative emissions, a lower financial burden for public finance of CDR and limited reliance on geologic CO2 storage but fails to lower the biomass demand. Proposed targets should also ensure sufficient CDR deployment to achieve net-negative emissions in the second half of the 21st century.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-60606-7

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