Risk assessment and perspectives of local transmission of chikungunya and dengue in Italy, a European forerunner

Francesco Menegale, Mattia Manica, Martina Manso, Antonino Bella, Agnese Zardini, Andrea Gobbi, Anna Domenica Mignuoli, Giovanna Mattei, Francesco Vairo, Luigi Vezzosi, Francesca Russo, Federica Ferraro, Francesco Maraglino, Anna Teresa Palamara, Piero Poletti (), Patrizio Pezzotti, Stefano Merler and Flavia Riccardo
Additional contact information
Francesco Menegale: Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Mattia Manica: Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Martina Manso: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Antonino Bella: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Agnese Zardini: Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Andrea Gobbi: Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Anna Domenica Mignuoli: Calabria Region
Giovanna Mattei: Emilia-Romagna Region
Francesco Vairo: National Institute for Infectious Diseases “Lazzaro Spallanzani” IRCCS
Luigi Vezzosi: Regione Lombardia
Francesca Russo: Veterinaria - Regione del Veneto
Federica Ferraro: Italian Ministry of Health
Francesco Maraglino: Italian Ministry of Health
Anna Teresa Palamara: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Piero Poletti: Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Patrizio Pezzotti: Istituto Superiore di Sanità
Stefano Merler: Fondazione Bruno Kessler
Flavia Riccardo: Istituto Superiore di Sanità

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract To address the growing frequency, extension, and size of local arboviral outbreaks in Europe we retrospectively analyzed dengue and chikungunya transmission in Italy from 2006 to 2023. We applied generalized additive models to the records of travel-related cases to highlight the spatiotemporal patterns of disease importation, calculated reproduction numbers for six local outbreaks based on autochthonous case data and mapped current transmission risks by applying a computational model that integrates human density, entomological, and climate data. Outbreak locations appear driven by case importation, which is notably higher for dengue – especially from June to October - rather than local transmission risks. Although reporting delays and favorable temperatures allowed onward transmission for several generations from mid-August to mid-November, upon outbreak detection control of transmission was achieved within 15 days. In high-risk areas, significantly longer epidemic risks were found for chikungunya (over 4 months). However, considering observed importation trends, increasingly frequent local dengue outbreaks are expected. Case detection should be prioritized focusing on areas, and in times, where environmental and climate conditions are permissive, regardless of prior outbreaks.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61109-1

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