Lithium-ion battery recycling relieves the threat to material scarcity amid China’s electric vehicle ambitions

Bin Zhang, Qingyao Xin (), Siyuan Chen, Bo Wang, Hao Li, Zhaohua Wang () and Prateek Bansal ()
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Bin Zhang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Qingyao Xin: Beijing Institute of Technology
Siyuan Chen: North China Electric Power University
Bo Wang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Hao Li: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Zhaohua Wang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Prateek Bansal: National University of Singapore

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract The electric automotive transition is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, especially in emerging economies like China. However, the scarcity of critical materials in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) challenges electric vehicle (EV) deployment targets. Our work delivers a comprehensive framework of EV battery recycling, considering resource compensation, environmental performance, geospatial optimization, and cost feasibility of closed-loop LIB recycling under China’s carbon neutrality. Our findings show that meeting EV deployment targets will widen the supply-demand gap, with cobalt and manganese demand exceeding 2022 production levels by 54-fold and 116-fold, respectively. Battery recycling is crucial for mitigating material scarcity, necessitating a minimum 84% collection rate to stabilize supply by 2060. Battery recycling remains economically viable in most scenarios, generating a net profit of US$58 billion in the optimal scenario. Here, our work underscores inherent trade-offs among integrated metrics, informing battery recycling strategies to strengthen supply chain resilience and advance automotive electrification under decarbonization goals.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61481-y

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