Policy-driven transformation of global solar PV supply chains and resulting impacts

Can Cui, Katherine Emma Lonergan and Giovanni Sansavini ()
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Can Cui: ETH Zurich
Katherine Emma Lonergan: ETH Zurich
Giovanni Sansavini: ETH Zurich

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 requires increasing technology production capacity, including solar photovoltaics (PV). Current supply chains rely heavily on Chinese production; however, this situation is not aligned with regions aiming to increase self-sufficiency, decrease supply chain emissions, and increase local job opportunities. Here, we apply a supply chain optimization model to perform scenario analysis of the PV supply chain development through 2021-2030 considering various European economic and job creation goals. Irrespective of regional goals, we find that China is poised to remain a globally dominant supplier through 2030, especially in terms of lower-value PV components, given that future demand requires increasing global production capacity by a factor of at least 1.5. We find that some regional supply chain goals can be co-beneficial, for example in terms of joint job gains and increased regional self-sufficiency. However, pursuing highly isolationist policies can introduce cost-significant inefficiencies. Our results highlight that an open trade policy is key to minimizing costs, even when considering security and environmental supply chain objectives.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61979-5

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