A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis

Ajay Gambhir (), Michael J. Albert, Sylvanus S. P. Doe, Jonathan F. Donges, Nadim Farajalla, Leandro L. Giatti, Haripriya Gundimeda, Sarah Hendel-Blackford, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Daniel Hoyer, Sumaya Adan, David Jacome-Polit, Luke Kemp, David Korowicz, Zora Kovacic, Jan Kwakkel, Laurie Laybourn, Robert Lempert, Ayan Mahamoud, Tom H. Oliver, Ivana E. Pavkova, Joseph Ponnoly, Vishwas Satgar, Megan Shipman, Jana Sillmann, Nick Silver, Samuel Stevenson and Ruth Richardson
Additional contact information
Ajay Gambhir: Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA)
Michael J. Albert: University of Edinburgh
Sylvanus S. P. Doe: GeoSustainability Consulting
Jonathan F. Donges: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Nadim Farajalla: Lebanese American University
Leandro L. Giatti: University of São Paulo
Haripriya Gundimeda: Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Sarah Hendel-Blackford: Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA)
Thomas Homer-Dixon: Royal Roads University
Daniel Hoyer: Complexity Science Hub. Vienna
Sumaya Adan: University of Oxford
David Jacome-Polit: ICLEI
Luke Kemp: Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
David Korowicz: Korowicz Human Systems, Balcarrick, Donabate
Zora Kovacic: Universitat Oberta de Catalunya
Jan Kwakkel: TU Delft
Laurie Laybourn: University of Exeter
Robert Lempert: Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND Corporation
Ayan Mahamoud: Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA)
Tom H. Oliver: University of Reading
Ivana E. Pavkova: TMP Climate
Joseph Ponnoly: Cinfodens Consulting
Vishwas Satgar: University of Witwatersrand, Wits
Megan Shipman: Royal Roads University
Jana Sillmann: Center for International Climate Research
Nick Silver: Bayes Business School
Samuel Stevenson: Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA)
Ruth Richardson: Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA)

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Human societies and ecological systems face increasingly severe risks, stemming from crossing planetary boundaries, worsening inequality, rising geo-political tensions, and new technologies. In an interconnected world, these risks can exacerbate each-other, creating systemic risks, which must be thoroughly assessed and responded to. Recent years have seen the emergence of analytical frameworks designed specifically for, or applicable to, systemic risk assessment, adding to the multitude of tools and models for analysing and simulating different systems. By assessing two recent global food and energy systemic crises, we propose a methodological framework applicable to assessing systemic risks in a polycrisis context, drawing from and building on existing approaches. Our framework’s polycrisis-specific features include: exploring system architectures including their objectives and political economy; consideration of transformational responses away from risks; and cross-cutting practices including consideration of non-human life, trans-disciplinarity, and diversity, transparency and communication of uncertainty around data, evidence and methods.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62029-w

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