Black carbon emissions generally underestimated in the global south as revealed by globally distributed measurements

Yuxuan Ren (), Christopher R. Oxford, Dandan Zhang, Xuan Liu, Haihui Zhu, Ann M. Dillner, Warren H. White, Rajan K. Chakrabarty, Sina Hasheminassab, David J. Diner, Emmie J. Roy, Joshin Kumar, Valerie Viteri, Keyao Song, Clement Akoshile, Omar Amador-Muñoz, Araya Asfaw, Rachel Ying-Wen Chang, Diana Francis, Paterne Gahungu, Rebecca M. Garland, Michel Grutter, Jhoon Kim, Kristy Langerman, Pei-Chen Lee, Puji Lestari, Olga L. Mayol-Bracero, Mogesh Naidoo, Narendra Nelli, Norm O’Neill, Sang Seo Park, Abdus Salam, Bighnaraj Sarangi, Yoav Schechner, Robyn Schofield, Sachchida N. Tripathi, Eli Windwer, Ming-Tsang Wu, Qiang Zhang, Yinon Rudich, Michael Brauer and Randall V. Martin
Additional contact information
Yuxuan Ren: Washington University in St. Louis
Christopher R. Oxford: Washington University in St. Louis
Dandan Zhang: Washington University in St. Louis
Xuan Liu: Washington University in St. Louis
Haihui Zhu: Washington University in St. Louis
Ann M. Dillner: University of California Davis
Warren H. White: University of California Davis
Rajan K. Chakrabarty: Washington University in St. Louis
Sina Hasheminassab: California Institute of Technology
David J. Diner: California Institute of Technology
Emmie J. Roy: Washington University in St. Louis
Joshin Kumar: Washington University in St. Louis
Valerie Viteri: Washington University in St. Louis
Keyao Song: Washington University in St. Louis
Clement Akoshile: University of Ilorin
Omar Amador-Muñoz: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Araya Asfaw: Addis Ababa University
Rachel Ying-Wen Chang: Dalhousie University
Diana Francis: Khalifa University
Paterne Gahungu: University of Burundi
Rebecca M. Garland: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
Michel Grutter: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Jhoon Kim: Yonsei University
Kristy Langerman: University of Johannesburg
Pei-Chen Lee: National Cheng Kung University
Puji Lestari: Bandung Institute of Technology
Olga L. Mayol-Bracero: University of Puerto Rico
Mogesh Naidoo: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
Narendra Nelli: Khalifa University
Norm O’Neill: Université de Sherbrooke
Sang Seo Park: Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology
Abdus Salam: University of Dhaka
Bighnaraj Sarangi: University of Puerto Rico
Yoav Schechner: Technion Israel Institute of Technology
Robyn Schofield: University of Melbourne
Sachchida N. Tripathi: Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
Eli Windwer: Weizmann Institute of Science
Ming-Tsang Wu: Kaohsiung Medical University
Qiang Zhang: Tsinghua University
Yinon Rudich: Weizmann Institute of Science
Michael Brauer: University of British Columbia
Randall V. Martin: Washington University in St. Louis

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Characterizing black carbon (BC) on a fine scale globally is essential for understanding its climate and health impacts. However, sparse BC mass measurements in different parts of the world and coarse model resolution have inhibited evaluation of global BC emission inventories. Here, we apply globally distributed BC mass measurements from the Surface Particulate Matter Network (SPARTAN) and complementary measurement networks to evaluate contemporary BC emission inventories. We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) in its high-performance configuration (GCHP) for high-resolution simulations to relate BC emissions to ambient concentrations for comparison with measurements. Here we find that simulations using the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) emission inventory exhibit skill (r2 = 0.73) in representing variability in SPARTAN measurements across primarily developed regions with low BC concentrations but exhibit pronounced discrepancy (r2 = 0.00019) across high-BC regions in the Global South, underestimating BC by 38%. Alternative inventories (EDGAR, HTAP) yield similar results. These findings motivate renewed attention to the challenging task of characterizing BC emissions from low- and middle-income countries.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62468-5

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