Spatiotemporal patterns of methane fluxes across alpine permafrost region on the Tibetan Plateau

Luyao Huang, Shuqi Qin, Dan Kou, Philippe Ciais, Xiaofeng Xu, Josep Peñuelas, Yi Xi, Guibiao Yang, Yutong Song, Shiting Yao, Jinfeng Chang () and Yuanhe Yang ()
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Luyao Huang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shuqi Qin: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Dan Kou: University of Eastern Finland
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Xiaofeng Xu: San Diego State University
Josep Peñuelas: Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
Yi Xi: Université Paris-Saclay
Guibiao Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yutong Song: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shiting Yao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jinfeng Chang: Zhejiang University
Yuanhe Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Methane (CH4) emissions from thawing permafrost could amplify climate warming. However, long-term trajectory of net CH4 balance in permafrost regions, particularly high-altitude permafrost regions, remains unknown. Based on literature synthesis and CLM5.0 model, we evaluate the contemporary and future CH4 fluxes across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region from 1989−2100. Here, we find that this permafrost region functions as a marginal CH4 sink during 1989-2018 (−0.01 ± 0.01 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹), and future trajectories diverge, with warming and wetting under low- and medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6/SSP2-4.5) driving persistent CH4 emissions (0.07 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹). By contrast, under higher emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0/SSP5-8.5), the region shifts to net emissions by mid-century but enhanced atmospheric CH4 concentrations strengthen sink, returning it to a net sink by century’s end (−0.06 ~ −0.02 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹). These results demonstrate that climate change and atmospheric CH4 dynamics jointly mediate the trajectory of alpine permafrost CH4 balance.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62699-6

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