Drivers of the pre-season drought thresholds triggering earlier autumn foliar senescence in the Northern Hemisphere

Wenbo Yan, Jian Zhou, Honghong Lin, Jinyi Luo, Xingwu Duan () and Ruidong Wu ()
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Wenbo Yan: Yunnan University
Jian Zhou: Yunnan University
Honghong Lin: Yunnan University
Jinyi Luo: Yunnan University
Xingwu Duan: Yunnan University
Ruidong Wu: Yunnan University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Global warming can postpone the autumn date of foliar senescence (DFS). Nevertheless, warming-associated droughts may induce earlier DFS. However, pre-season drought thresholds triggering an earlier DFS (PDT-DFS) are not clearly established. Using site-level DFS data since 1951, satellite-derived DFS data for 1982‒2021, and drought indices, we construct a copula-based Bayesian framework to identify the PDT-DFS over the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N). A higher probability of droughts is associated with an earlier DFS. The DFS for the

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62847-y

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