Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts

Xilin Wu, Jun Wang, Yong Ge (), Shengjie Lai, Die Zhang, Zhoupeng Ren and Jianghao Wang
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Xilin Wu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jun Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yong Ge: Jiangxi Normal University
Shengjie Lai: University of Southampton
Die Zhang: Jiangxi Normal University
Zhoupeng Ren: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jianghao Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is driving summer heat toward more humid conditions, accompanied by more frequent day-night compound heat extremes (high temperatures during both day and night). As the fast-warming and aging continent, Europe faces escalating heat-related health risks. Here, we projected future heat-related mortality in Europe using a distributed lag nonlinear model that incorporates humid heat and compound heat extremes, strengthened by a health risk-based definition of extreme heat and a scenario matrix integrating time-varying adaptation trajectories. Under 2010–2019 adaptation baselines, future heat-related mortality is projected to increase annually by 103.7-135.1 deaths per million people by 2100 across various population-climate scenarios for every degree of global warming, with Western and Eastern Europe suffering the most. If global warming exceeds 2 °C, climate change will dominate (84.0–96.8%) projected increase in heat-related mortality. Across all socioeconomic pathways, even a 50% reduction in heat-related relative risk through physiological adaptation will be insufficient to offset the climate change-driven escalation of future heat-related mortality.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62871-y

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