The impact of temporal hydrogen regulation on hydrogen exporters and their domestic energy transition

Leon Schumm (), Hazem Abdel-Khalek, Tom Brown, Falko Ueckerdt, Michael Sterner, Maximilian Parzen and Davide Fioriti
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Leon Schumm: University of Applied Sciences (OTH) Regensburg
Hazem Abdel-Khalek: Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems IEG
Tom Brown: Technische Universität Berlin
Falko Ueckerdt: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Michael Sterner: University of Applied Sciences (OTH) Regensburg
Maximilian Parzen: Open Energy Transition
Davide Fioriti: Territory and Construction Engineering

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract As global demand for green hydrogen rises, potential hydrogen exporters move into the spotlight. While exports can bring countries revenue, large-scale on-grid hydrogen electrolysis for export can profoundly impact domestic energy prices and energy-related emissions. Our investigation explores the interplay of hydrogen exports, domestic energy transition and temporal hydrogen regulation, employing a sector-coupled energy model in Morocco. We find substantial co-benefits of domestic carbon dioxide mitigation and hydrogen exports, whereby exports can reduce market-based costs for domestic electricity consumers while mitigation reduces costs for hydrogen exporters. However, increasing hydrogen exports in a fossil-dominated system can substantially raise market-based costs for domestic electricity consumers, but surprisingly, temporal matching of hydrogen production can lower these costs by up to 31% with minimal impact on exporters. Here, we show that this policy instrument can steer the welfare (re-)distribution between hydrogen exporting firms, hydrogen importers, and domestic electricity consumers and hereby increases acceptance among actors.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62873-w

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