Trait mediation explains decadal distributional shifts for a wide range of insect taxa

Yoann Bourhis (), Alice E. Milne, Chris R. Shortall, Björn Beckman, Dan Blumgart, Rowan Edwards, Luke C. Evans, Chris W. Foster, Richard Fox, Marc S. Botham, Clare Rowland, Stuart Roberts, Martin C. D. Speight, Chris Hassall, William E. Kunin and James R. Bell
Additional contact information
Yoann Bourhis: West Common
Alice E. Milne: West Common
Chris R. Shortall: West Common
Björn Beckman: The Nunnery
Dan Blumgart: West Common
Rowan Edwards: Hymettus Ltd
Luke C. Evans: Whiteknights campus
Chris W. Foster: Whiteknights campus
Richard Fox: East Lulworth
Marc S. Botham: Crowmarsh Gifford
Clare Rowland: Bailrigg
Stuart Roberts: University of Reading
Martin C. D. Speight: Trinity College
Chris Hassall: University of Leeds
William E. Kunin: University of Leeds
James R. Bell: Keele

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Shifts in insect distributions have been reported globally, largely attributed to climate and landscape changes. Communities are being reshaped, with species response traits mediating the effects of changing environments. Using a machine-learning approach we model 1252 insect occupancies across three decades in Great Britain. We combine independent models of nine insect groups (butterflies, moths, odonates, orthopterans, carabids, ladybirds, bees, wasps and hoverflies) to take a high-level view of the trends and key environmental drivers of insect occupancy, as well as to highlight the trait mediations underlying the resulting niches. Across this wide taxonomic range, we identify common trends in insect occupancies, showing no Great Britain-wide decline since 1990, but instead local declines and changes in community compositions. Known drivers of biodiversity loss appear to underlie those changes, notably urban sprawl and landscape simplification. Our approach also highlights the crucial roles of two response traits: habitat breadth, in mediating the effects of changing landscapes diversity and voltinism, in mediating the effects of increasing temperatures on insect life cycles.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63093-y

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