100-kyr climate cycles caused by 2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated carbon cycles

Zhifeng Zhang, Yongjian Huang (), Chao Ma (), Qiuzhen Yin, Hanfei Yang, Eun Young Lee, Hai Cheng, Benjamin Sames, Michael Wagreich, Tiantian Wang, Qingping Liu and Chengshan Wang ()
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Zhifeng Zhang: China University of Geosciences
Yongjian Huang: China University of Geosciences
Chao Ma: Chengdu University of Technology
Qiuzhen Yin: Université catholique de Louvain
Hanfei Yang: Guangzhou University
Eun Young Lee: University of Vienna
Hai Cheng: Xi’an Jiaotong University
Benjamin Sames: University of Vienna
Michael Wagreich: University of Vienna
Tiantian Wang: China University of Geosciences
Qingping Liu: China Geological Survey (Geosciences Innovation Center of Southwest China)
Chengshan Wang: China University of Geosciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Earth’s climate has been dominated by ~100-kyr glacial cycles over the past ~800 ka, yet the mechanism remains debated. Here, we present correlation analyses of spectral power ratios of global records spanning the past 2.7 Ma, revealing a persistent anticorrelation between ~21-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios, but no significant relationship between ~41-kyr and ~100-kyr power ratios. This suggests that ~100-kyr climate cycles are more related to eccentricity-modulated precession than to obliquity. Phase analyses of benthic δ18O/ice volume and δ13C (carbon cycle) since Antarctic glaciation onset (~34 Ma) show that strong ~100-kyr cycles emerged only when these proxies were phase-coupled. Such coupling recurred at ~2.4-Myr eccentricity maxima during the unipolar regime (before 7.5 Ma) and minima during the bipolar regime (after 4 Ma), explaining the persistent ~21-kyr/~100-kyr anticorrelation because eccentricity modulates precession amplitude. We propose that internal carbon cycle dynamics and ~2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated δ¹⁸O/ice volume–δ¹³C coupling amplified ~100-kyr climate cycles not only over the past ~800 ka but since 34 Ma. Given that eccentricity will remain low for the next 400 kyr, ~100-kyr periodicities may continue to dominate future climate variability, assuming Earth remains in a bipolar regime.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63403-4

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