Amplified local cooling effect of forestation in warming Europe

Yitao Li, Jun Ge, Hua Wu, Ronglin Tang, Yuanliang Cheng, Xiangyang Liu, Yi Wang, Wei Zhao, Caixia Gao, Si-Bo Duan, Qian Shi, Pei Leng, Enyu Zhao, Guangjian Yan, Xiaoning Song, Chenghu Zhou and Zhao-Liang Li ()
Additional contact information
Yitao Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jun Ge: Nanjing University
Hua Wu: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
Ronglin Tang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yuanliang Cheng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiangyang Liu: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Yi Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wei Zhao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Caixia Gao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Si-Bo Duan: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Qian Shi: Sun Yat-sen University
Pei Leng: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Enyu Zhao: Dalian Maritime University
Guangjian Yan: Beijing Normal University
Xiaoning Song: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chenghu Zhou: Guangdong Academy of Sciences
Zhao-Liang Li: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Forests exhibit local cooling or warming effects compared to adjacent openlands through biophysical processes. These temperature effects are predicted by earth system models to evolve in response to climate change. However, such temporal patterns remain unconstrained by observations and have not been detected in historical records. Here, by comparing the satellite observations of spatially nearby forests and openlands over the last two decades, we quantify temporal trends in local land surface temperature (LST) effects of forest change in Europe. During winter, the daytime warming effect of potential forestation weakens and reverses to cooling (−0.142 K/decade) with decreasing snow cover, as forests show less pronounced surface darkening trends than openlands. During summer, the daytime cooling effect intensifies (−0.188 K/decade) because forests remain more physiologically and hydrologically resilient to increasing soil dryness. These negative trends are broadly supported by state-of-the-art earth system models, though substantial inter-model variability persists. Given continued climate change, we emphasize the need to consider the dynamics of biophysical effects when comprehensive forest-related climate policies are formed.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63556-2

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