Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño–Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections

Yunyu Tian, Yiting Xu, Yilin Liang, Ziqin Zhou, Katie M. Susong, Yuyang Chen, Kishen Joshi, Amy M. Campbell, Ahyoung Lim, Qiushi Lin, Zixuan Ma, Yuanlong Wei, Yun Yang, Cheng Sun, Juan Feng, Qixin He, Zengmiao Wang, Bernard Cazelles, Yuanfang Guo, Kai Liu, Oliver J. Brady () and Huaiyu Tian ()
Additional contact information
Yunyu Tian: Beijing Normal University
Yiting Xu: Beijing Normal University
Yilin Liang: Beijing Normal University
Ziqin Zhou: Beijing Normal University
Katie M. Susong: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Yuyang Chen: China Three Gorges Corporation
Kishen Joshi: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Amy M. Campbell: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Ahyoung Lim: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Qiushi Lin: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Zixuan Ma: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Yuanlong Wei: Beijing Normal University
Yun Yang: Beijing Normal University
Cheng Sun: Beijing Normal University
Juan Feng: Beijing Normal University
Qixin He: Purdue University
Zengmiao Wang: Beijing Normal University
Bernard Cazelles: École Normale Supérieure
Yuanfang Guo: School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University
Kai Liu: Beijing Normal University
Oliver J. Brady: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Huaiyu Tian: Beijing Normal University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Global climate variability has been linked with some of the largest dengue outbreaks, including the record-breaking 2023–2024 epidemic, but the understanding of their mechanism and evidence for their association is lacking. By incorporating reported dengue cases and climate data from 57 countries across the Americas and Asia from 1980 to 2024, we unpacked the global climate teleconnection and quantifying its impact on dengue cases. We revealed that the heterogeneity in the association between global climate variability and dengue cases across regions is affected by the strength and types of global climate teleconnections with temperature and precipitation. By controlling for the heterogeneity, 63% of the variation in dengue cases can be attributed to El Niño–Southern Oscillation fluctuations, with higher values in endemic regions. The 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24 El Niño events were estimated to have induced an additional 0.2, 1.4, 4.1, and 9.6 million dengue cases, respectively, over regular seasonal patterns. Due to human-induced warming, El Niño events and teleconnections may cause a 39.0–81.7% increase in cumulative cases in 2020–2099. Our findings quantify the association between global climate variability and dengue epidemics and caution about the potential future risk.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63655-0

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