A building-scale modeling framework for urban net-zero transitions in Nanjing

Yuxin Chen, Zhenyu Wang, Quan Wen, Jing Meng, Jingwen Huo, Shuping Li, Li Zhou, Peipei Chen, Diling Liang, Jun Bi and Dabo Guan ()
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Yuxin Chen: Tsinghua University
Zhenyu Wang: Tsinghua University
Quan Wen: Tsinghua University
Jing Meng: University College London
Jingwen Huo: University College London
Shuping Li: Tsinghua University
Li Zhou: China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute
Peipei Chen: University of Cambridge
Diling Liang: University College London
Jun Bi: Nanjing University
Dabo Guan: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Carbon reduction during the operational phase of buildings is a critical component in achieving global carbon neutrality objectives. Current emission estimation methods often overlook building-level heterogeneity, limiting precise retrofit strategies. Here, we develop a building-based emissions accounting framework incorporating building typology, function, and geometry, augmented by facility-level power plant data. We propose tailored operational-phase mitigation technologies, analyzing 2020-2050 pathways through baseline, regulatory, and blueprint scenarios. Demand-side strategies target energy behavior modification (e.g., efficient lighting), while supply-side interventions prioritize coal-to-biomass conversion and fossil plant retirement. Applied to Nanjing (534,000 buildings across 101 streets), results show commercial buildings exhibit 3.9 times higher carbon intensity than residential units. End-use efficiency upgrades (HVAC, lighting, appliances) prove most effective for commercial sectors, whereas supply-side gains derive primarily from accelerated coal plant phaseout before 2045 and renewable integration (solar/wind/nuclear). This approach provides actionable building-specific decarbonization pathways, offering policymakers science-backed strategies for urban energy transitions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64016-7

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