Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development

Xuehong Yuan, Qingming Song, Ya Liu, Mingxing Huang, Yuting Wang and Zhenming Xu ()
Additional contact information
Xuehong Yuan: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Qingming Song: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Ya Liu: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Mingxing Huang: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Yuting Wang: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Zhenming Xu: Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Anthropogenic mineral circularity offers a synergistic solution to dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in photovoltaic development. However, the global supply potential of secondary materials remains underexplored, limiting future informed decision-making. Here, we present the global analysis of secondary material supply potential in five photovoltaic technologies under different energy scenarios, using the tailored modeling framework. Results show that cumulative material demand and waste generation are projected to reach 705–1879 megatonnes and 238–529 megatonnes, respectively, by 2050. With the circularity strategy, the annual supply ratio of secondary materials is expected to increase from 3.3% in 2020 to 43.4%–101.6% by 2050, with silver and tellurium potentially in surplus. Additionally, circularity brings 6.6%–55.0% decrease in metal criticality, 321–700 billion US Dollars economic potential, and 697.0–1546.1 megatonnes CO2-equivalent emissions reductions. This study quantifies anthropogenic mineral circularity’s role in photovoltaic development and provides insights for energy transition.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64145-z Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-64145-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64145-z

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().