Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China

Zijian Ren, Meng Jiang, Paul Behrens (), Dingjiang Chen, Clemens Mostert, Wenji Zhou, Chunlong Li, Fei Li, Lin Liu, Heming Wang, Ming Xu, Edgar Hertwich, Stefan Bringezu and Bing Zhu ()
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Zijian Ren: Tsinghua University
Meng Jiang: Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
Paul Behrens: University of Oxford
Dingjiang Chen: Tsinghua University
Clemens Mostert: University of Kassel
Wenji Zhou: Renmin University of China
Chunlong Li: Tsinghua University
Fei Li: Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
Lin Liu: Tsinghua University
Heming Wang: Northeastern University
Ming Xu: Tsinghua University
Stefan Bringezu: University of Kassel
Bing Zhu: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Aggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone) make up half of all globally extracted materials and present substantial environmental challenges. China, which consumes half of the world’s aggregates, is undergoing profound shifts in both supply and demand. Our scenario-based model tracks aggregate flows and stocks across 30 end-uses in Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2050. We find that China’s aggregate demand peaked around 2015, accompanied by a gradual and continuous shift from natural to manufactured aggregates. Total demand after 2030 is projected to decline to ~50% of 2020 levels in circular economy scenarios. Per capita stocks tend to saturate by 2040, although saturation timing varies across provinces. Stock saturation may lead to increased availability of recycled aggregates, which could become a primary supply source. We highlight the critical need for stricter policies and regulations for the aggregate industry, offering insights for other economies facing similar challenges.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64349-3

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