Sea Ice Loss leads to regime shifts in the arctic biological pump

Ming Wu, Yuhan Hu, Chengfeng Le (), Fanyu Lin, Tingyu Gu, Peifang Deng, Zong-Pei Jiang, Kui Wang, Yihui Chen, Wei-Lei Wang, Musheng Lan, Ruibo Lei, Jianfeng He, Di Qi, Zhangxian Ouyang, John C. Lehrter, Chuanmin Hu and Wei-Jun Cai ()
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Ming Wu: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Yuhan Hu: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Chengfeng Le: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Fanyu Lin: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Tingyu Gu: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Peifang Deng: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Zong-Pei Jiang: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Kui Wang: Zhejiang University, State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College
Yihui Chen: Peking University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics
Wei-Lei Wang: Xiamen University, State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences
Musheng Lan: Polar Research Institute of China, Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the Ministry of Natural Resources
Ruibo Lei: Polar Research Institute of China, Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the Ministry of Natural Resources
Jianfeng He: Polar Research Institute of China, Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the Ministry of Natural Resources
Di Qi: Jimei University, Polar and Marine Research Institute, College of Harbor and Coastal Engineering
Zhangxian Ouyang: University of Delaware, School of Marine Science and Policy
John C. Lehrter: University of South Alabama, School of Marine and Environmental Science
Chuanmin Hu: University of South Florida, College of Marine Science
Wei-Jun Cai: University of Delaware, School of Marine Science and Policy

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract The Arctic Ocean has undergone accelerated warming and a marked decline in sea ice over recent decades. Yet, the response of the biological pump—a critical mechanism for atmospheric carbon sequestration—remains poorly understood. Here, we develop a satellite-derived dataset (2003–2022) to identify a regime shift in the Arctic biological pump. Between 2003 and 2012, the strength and efficiency of the biological pump increased rapidly, primarily driven by sea ice decline. However, from 2013 to 2022, this trend plateaued, coinciding with stabilized sea ice conditions and increased phytoplankton biomass. Earth system model simulations (1850–2100) support the observed link between biological pump enhancement and sea ice loss, and project a future regime shift towards a weakened biological pump under nearly ice-free conditions, associated with shifts in phytoplankton community structure. These findings underscore the Arctic’s vulnerability to climate-driven changes, with far-reaching implications for Arctic carbon sequestration and ecosystem stability.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65285-y

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