Increasing central and northern European summer heatwave intensity due to forced changes in internal variability

Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga (), Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Armineh Barkhordarian, Dirk Olonscheck and Johanna Baehr
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Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga: Universität Hamburg
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez: ETH Zurich
Armineh Barkhordarian: Universität Hamburg
Dirk Olonscheck: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Johanna Baehr: Universität Hamburg

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract In recent years, European summer heatwaves have strongly intensified due to rising anthropogenic emissions. While European summer heatwaves will continue to intensify due to the warming of summer temperatures, the effects of the changes in internal variability under global warming remain unknown. Employing five single-model initial-condition large ensembles, we find that the forced changes in internal variability are projected to intensify central and northern European summer heatwaves. Central and northern Europe will experience frequent moisture limitations, enhancing land-atmosphere feedback and increasing heatwave intensity and variability. In contrast, the forced changes in internal variability will contribute to weakening southern European summer heatwaves. Southern Europe is projected to face a more stable moisture-depleted environment that reduces extreme temperature variability and heatwave intensity. Our findings imply that while adaptation to increasing mean temperatures in southern Europe should suffice to reduce the vulnerability to increasing EuSHW intensity, in central and northern Europe adaptation to increased temperature variability will also be needed.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65392-w

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