Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming

Karim Zantout (), Juraj Balkovic, Maik Billing, Christian Folberth, Simon N. Gosling, Tobias Hank, Stijn Hantson, Toshichika Iizumi, Akihiko Ito, Jonas Jägermeyr, Atul K. Jain, Nikolay Khabarov, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Fang Li, Mengxue Li, Tzu-Shun Lin, Wenfeng Liu, Christoph Müller, Masashi Okada, Sebastian Ostberg, Kedar Otta, Sam Rabin, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Clemens Scheer, Julia M. Schneider, Florian Zabel, Katja Frieler and Jacob Schewe
Additional contact information
Karim Zantout: Member of the Leibniz Association
Juraj Balkovic: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Maik Billing: Member of the Leibniz Association
Christian Folberth: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Simon N. Gosling: University of Nottingham
Tobias Hank: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
Stijn Hantson: Universidad del Rosario
Toshichika Iizumi: National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO)
Akihiko Ito: The University of Tokyo
Jonas Jägermeyr: Member of the Leibniz Association
Atul K. Jain: University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Nikolay Khabarov: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht: Simon Fraser University, British Columbia
Fang Li: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Mengxue Li: State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources
Tzu-Shun Lin: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
Wenfeng Liu: State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources
Christoph Müller: Member of the Leibniz Association
Masashi Okada: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Sebastian Ostberg: Member of the Leibniz Association
Kedar Otta: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Sam Rabin: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
Christopher P. O. Reyer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Clemens Scheer: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU)
Julia M. Schneider: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
Florian Zabel: University of Basel
Katja Frieler: Member of the Leibniz Association
Jacob Schewe: Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme climate events have been extensively studied, yet two questions remain underexplored: Do such events occur regularly, and how do regularity patterns change under global warming? We address these questions by investigating dominant periods in crop failure, heatwave, and wildfire data. Here, we show that under pre-industrial conditions dominant periods emerge in 28% of cropland exposed to crop failure and 10% of wildfire-affected areas, likely related to climatic oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, while heatwaves occur irregularly. The number of dominant periods increases by 2–13% during the transition from the pre-industrial era to the anthropocene. In the anthropocene, the occurrence of extreme events shifts towards monotonic growth, replacing previous natural regularity patterns. Linearly de-trended projections reveal an additional shift towards smaller dominant periods due to climate change. These shifts in regularity are crucial for adaptation planning, and our method offers an additional approach for studying extreme events.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65600-7

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