Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century

Marin Kneib (), Fabien Maussion, Fanny Brun, Guillem Carcanade, Daniel Farinotti, Matthias Huss, Marit van Tiel, Achille Jouberton, Patrick Schmitt, Lilian Schuster, Amaury Dehecq and Nicolas Champollion
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Marin Kneib: ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
Fabien Maussion: University of Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences
Fanny Brun: IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS
Guillem Carcanade: IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS
Daniel Farinotti: ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
Matthias Huss: ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
Marit van Tiel: ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
Achille Jouberton: ISTA, Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Patrick Schmitt: University of Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences
Lilian Schuster: University of Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences
Amaury Dehecq: IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS
Nicolas Champollion: IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS

Nature Communications, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Glaciers are often located in steep mountain settings and avalanches from surrounding slopes can strongly influence snow accumulation patterns on their surface. This effect has however never been quantified for more than a few glaciers and the impact on the future evolution of glaciers is unclear. We coupled an avalanche and a glacier model to estimate the contribution of avalanches to the accumulation of all glaciers in the world and how this affects their evolution throughout the 21st century. Globally, 3% of the snow accumulation on glaciers comes from avalanches and 1% is removed by avalanches. This net contribution varies between regions and glaciers, with a maximum of 15% for New Zealand. Accounting for avalanches modifies the altitudinal pattern of glacier mass balance and the projected evolution of individual glaciers. The main effects include (1) a longer persistence of small glaciers, with for example three times more ice retained by glaciers smaller than 1 km2 in Central Europe under a low-emission scenario, and (2) an increased sensitivity of high-elevation accumulation zones to future warming. We anticipate the relative influence of avalanches to increase in the future and advocate for a better monitoring of this process and representation in glacier models.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z

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