Estimating the potential public health impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in African children

Matthew Cairns (), Arantxa Roca-Feltrer, Tini Garske, Anne L. Wilson, Diadier Diallo, Paul J. Milligan, Azra C Ghani and Brian M. Greenwood
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Matthew Cairns: MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Arantxa Roca-Feltrer: Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, College of Medicine
Tini Garske: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus
Anne L. Wilson: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Diadier Diallo: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Paul J. Milligan: MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Azra C Ghani: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus
Brian M. Greenwood: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2012, vol. 3, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Seasonal malaria chemoprevention, previously known as intermittent preventive treatment in children, is highly effective in areas with a short malaria transmission season. Here we assess seasonality in malaria incidence data and define a predictor of seasonality based on rainfall. We then use spatial rainfall, malaria endemicity and population data to identify areas likely to have highly seasonal malaria incidence, and estimate the population at risk and malaria burden in areas where seasonal malaria chemoprevention would be appropriate. We estimate that in areas suitable for seasonal malaria chemoprevention, there are 39 million children under 5 years of age, who experience 33.7 million malaria episodes and 152,000 childhood deaths from malaria each year. The majority of this burden occurs in the Sahelian or sub-Sahelian regions of Africa. Our data suggest that seasonal malaria chemoprevention has the potential to avert several million malaria cases and tens of thousands of childhood deaths each year if successfully delivered to the populations at risk.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1879

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