Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa

Jamie T. Griffin (), Neil M. Ferguson and Azra C. Ghani
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Jamie T. Griffin: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London
Neil M. Ferguson: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London
Azra C. Ghani: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2014, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Estimating the changing burden of malaria disease remains difficult owing to limitations in health reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition and loss of immunity to capture age-specific patterns of disease at different transmission intensities. The model is fitted to age-stratified data from 23 sites in Africa, and we then produce maps and estimates of disease burden. We estimate that in 2010 there were 252 (95% credible interval: 171–353) million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa that active case finding would detect. However, only 34% (12–86%) of these cases would be observed through passive case detection. We estimate that the proportion of all cases of clinical malaria that are in under-fives varies from above 60% at high transmission to below 20% at low transmission. The focus of some interventions towards young children may need to be reconsidered, and should be informed by the current local transmission intensity.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4136

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