Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

Ivan D. Haigh (), Thomas Wahl, Eelco J. Rohling, René M. Price, Charitha B. Pattiaratchi, Francisco M. Calafat and Sönke Dangendorf
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Ivan D. Haigh: Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton
Thomas Wahl: Research Centre Siegen, University of Siegen
Eelco J. Rohling: Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton
René M. Price: Florida International University
Charitha B. Pattiaratchi: School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia
Francisco M. Calafat: National Oceanography Centre, Waterfront Campus, European Way
Sönke Dangendorf: Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen

Nature Communications, 2014, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4635

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