Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky (), Alexander Popp, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Susanne Rolinski, Isabelle Weindl, Christoph Schmitz, Christoph Müller, Markus Bonsch, Florian Humpenöder, Anne Biewald and Miodrag Stevanovic
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Benjamin Leon Bodirsky: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jan Philipp Dietrich: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Susanne Rolinski: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Isabelle Weindl: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Christoph Schmitz: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Markus Bonsch: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Anne Biewald: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Miodrag Stevanovic: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nature Communications, 2014, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102–156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36–76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4858

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