Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

Marius Gilbert (), Nick Golding (), Hang Zhou, G. R. William Wint, Timothy P. Robinson, Andrew J. Tatem, Shengjie Lai, Sheng Zhou, Hui Jiang, Danhuai Guo, Zhi Huang, Jane P. Messina, Xiangming Xiao, Catherine Linard, Thomas P. Van Boeckel, Vincent Martin, Samir Bhatt, Peter W. Gething, Jeremy J. Farrar, Simon I. Hay and Hongjie Yu ()
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Marius Gilbert: Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
Nick Golding: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building
Hang Zhou: Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
G. R. William Wint: Environmental Research Group Oxford, University of Oxford
Timothy P. Robinson: Livestock Systems and Environment (LSE), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
Andrew J. Tatem: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
Shengjie Lai: Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Sheng Zhou: Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Hui Jiang: Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Danhuai Guo: Scientific Data Center, Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhongguancun Nansijie
Zhi Huang: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building
Jane P. Messina: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building
Xiangming Xiao: Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma
Catherine Linard: Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
Thomas P. Van Boeckel: Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
Vincent Martin: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Representation in Senegal
Samir Bhatt: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building
Peter W. Gething: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building
Jeremy J. Farrar: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit–Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Unit
Simon I. Hay: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building
Hongjie Yu: Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Nature Communications, 2014, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5116

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