Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Oliver Heiri (), Stephen J. Brooks, Hans Renssen, Alan Bedford, Marjolein Hazekamp, Boris Ilyashuk, Elizabeth S. Jeffers, Barbara Lang, Emiliya Kirilova, Saskia Kuiper, Laurent Millet, Stéphanie Samartin, Monika Toth, Frederike Verbruggen, Jenny E. Watson, Nelleke van Asch, Emmy Lammertsma, Leeli Amon, Hilary H. Birks, H. John B Birks, Morten F. Mortensen, Wim Z. Hoek, Enikö Magyari, Castor Muñoz Sobrino, Heikki Seppä, Willy Tinner, Spassimir Tonkov, Siim Veski and André F. Lotter
Additional contact information
Oliver Heiri: Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland
Stephen J. Brooks: Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK
Hans Renssen: Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1081, NL-1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Alan Bedford: Edge Hill University, St Helen’s Road, Ormskirk L39 4QP, UK
Marjolein Hazekamp: Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands
Boris Ilyashuk: Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstraße 25, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Elizabeth S. Jeffers: Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Biodiversity Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
Barbara Lang: Strata Environmental, 12 Chapel Walks, Kirkham, Preston
Emiliya Kirilova: Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands
Saskia Kuiper: Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands
Laurent Millet: Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS, UFR Sciences et Techniques, Université de Franche-Comté
Stéphanie Samartin: Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland
Monika Toth: Balaton Limnological Institute, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Klebelsberg K. 3, HU-8237 Tihany, Hungary
Frederike Verbruggen: Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands
Jenny E. Watson: School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queens University
Nelleke van Asch: Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
Emmy Lammertsma: Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
Leeli Amon: Institute of Geology at Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia
Hilary H. Birks: University of Bergen, PO Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway
H. John B Birks: University of Bergen, PO Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway
Morten F. Mortensen: The National Museum of Denmark, Environmental Archaeology and Materials Science, Ny Vestergade 11, 1471 Copenhagen, Denmark
Wim Z. Hoek: Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
Enikö Magyari: Hungarian Academy of Sciences-Natural History Museum, Research group for Paleontology, Paleontology, PO Box 222, HU-1476 Budapest, Hungary
Castor Muñoz Sobrino: University of Vigo, Campus As Lagoas-Marcosende s/n, E-36310 Vigo, Spain
Heikki Seppä: University of Helsinki, PO Box 64, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland
Willy Tinner: Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland
Spassimir Tonkov: Laboratory of Palynology, Faculty of Biology, University of Sofia, Dragan Tzankov 8, 1164 Sofia, Bulgaria
Siim Veski: Institute of Geology at Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia
André F. Lotter: Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands

Nature Communications, 2014, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5914

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