Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

Chris A. Boulton (), Lesley C. Allison and Timothy M. Lenton
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Chris A. Boulton: Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building (Level 7), University of Exeter
Lesley C. Allison: Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building (Level 7), University of Exeter
Timothy M. Lenton: Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building (Level 7), University of Exeter

Nature Communications, 2014, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6752

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