The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

Sonia Jerez (), Isabelle Tobin, Robert Vautard, Juan Pedro Montávez, Jose María López-Romero, Françoise Thais, Blanka Bartok, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Augustin Colette, Michel Déqué, Grigory Nikulin, Sven Kotlarski, Erik van Meijgaard, Claas Teichmann and Martin Wild
Additional contact information
Sonia Jerez: University of Murcia
Isabelle Tobin: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Robert Vautard: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Juan Pedro Montávez: University of Murcia
Jose María López-Romero: University of Murcia
Françoise Thais: Institut de Technico-Economie des Systèmes Energétiques (I-Tésé), CEA/DEN/DANS
Blanka Bartok: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
Ole Bøssing Christensen: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
Augustin Colette: Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
Michel Déqué: Météo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME
Grigory Nikulin: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Sven Kotlarski: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
Erik van Meijgaard: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Claas Teichmann: Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)
Martin Wild: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10014

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