An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010

Paul B. Goddard, Jianjun Yin (), Stephen M. Griffies and Shaoqing Zhang
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Paul B. Goddard: University of Arizona
Jianjun Yin: University of Arizona
Stephen M. Griffies: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA
Shaoqing Zhang: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The coastal sea levels along the Northeast Coast of North America show significant year-to-year fluctuations in a general upward trend. The analysis of long-term tide gauge records identified an extreme sea-level rise (SLR) event during 2009–10. Within this 2-year period, the coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by 128 mm. This magnitude of interannual SLR is unprecedented (a 1-in-850 year event) during the entire history of the tide gauge records. Here we show that this extreme SLR event is a combined effect of two factors: an observed 30% downturn of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during 2009–10, and a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation index. The extreme nature of the 2009–10 SLR event suggests that such a significant downturn of the Atlantic overturning circulation is very unusual. During the twenty-first century, climate models project an increase in magnitude and frequency of extreme interannual SLR events along this densely populated coast.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7346

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