Global migration of influenza A viruses in swine

Martha I. Nelson (), Cécile Viboud, Amy L. Vincent, Marie R. Culhane, Susan E. Detmer, David E. Wentworth, Andrew Rambaut, Marc A. Suchard, Edward C. Holmes and Philippe Lemey
Additional contact information
Martha I. Nelson: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
Cécile Viboud: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
Amy L. Vincent: Virus and Prion Diseases of Livestock Research Unit, National Animal Disease Center, USDA-ARS
Marie R. Culhane: University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory
Susan E. Detmer: Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan
David E. Wentworth: J Craig Venter Institute
Andrew Rambaut: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
Marc A. Suchard: Biostatistics, and Human Genetics, University of California
Edward C. Holmes: Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Charles Perkins Centre, School of Biological Sciences and Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney
Philippe Lemey: Rega Institute, KU Leuven—University of Leuven

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The complex and unresolved evolutionary origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic exposed major gaps in our knowledge of the global spatial ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs). Here we undertake an expansive phylogenetic analysis of swIAV sequence data and demonstrate that the global live swine trade strongly predicts the spatial dissemination of swIAVs, with Europe and North America acting as sources of viruses in Asian countries. In contrast, China has the world’s largest swine population but is not a major exporter of live swine, and is not an important source of swIAVs in neighbouring Asian countries or globally. A meta-population simulation model incorporating trade data predicts that the global ecology of swIAVs is more complex than previously thought, and the United States and China’s large swine populations are unlikely to be representative of swIAV diversity in their respective geographic regions, requiring independent surveillance efforts throughout Latin America and Asia.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7696

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