Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

Yoshimitsu Chikamoto (), Axel Timmermann, Jing-Jia Luo, Takashi Mochizuki, Masahide Kimoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Masayoshi Ishii, Shang-Ping Xie and Fei-Fei Jin
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Yoshimitsu Chikamoto: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Axel Timmermann: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Jing-Jia Luo: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology
Takashi Mochizuki: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Masahide Kimoto: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo
Masahiro Watanabe: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo
Masayoshi Ishii: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
Shang-Ping Xie: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego
Fei-Fei Jin: University of Hawaii at Manoa

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7869

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