Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

Mathew Koll Roxy (), Kapoor Ritika, Pascal Terray, Raghu Murtugudde, Karumuri Ashok and B. N. Goswami
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Mathew Koll Roxy: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Kapoor Ritika: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Pascal Terray: Sorbonne Universites (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory
Raghu Murtugudde: ESSIC, University of Maryland
Karumuri Ashok: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
B. N. Goswami: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901–2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8423

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