Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing

Amos Winter (), Davide Zanchettin, Thomas Miller, Yochanan Kushnir, David Black, Gerrit Lohmann, Allison Burnett, Gerald H. Haug, Juan Estrella-Martínez, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Luc Beaufort, Angelo Rubino and Hai Cheng
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Amos Winter: University of Puerto Rico
Davide Zanchettin: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Thomas Miller: University of Puerto Rico
Yochanan Kushnir: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
David Black: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University
Gerrit Lohmann: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Allison Burnett: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
Gerald H. Haug: Geological Institute, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Juan Estrella-Martínez: University of Puerto Rico
Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach: University of Cambridge
Luc Beaufort: Environmental Geosciences, CEREGE (CNRS-Université Aix Marseille)
Angelo Rubino: Informatics and Statistics, University of Venice
Hai Cheng: University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8627

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