Non-random patterns in viral diversity

Simon J. Anthony (), Ariful Islam, Christine Johnson, Isamara Navarrete-Macias, Eliza Liang, Komal Jain, Peta L. Hitchens, Xiaoyu Che, Alexander Soloyvov, Allison L. Hicks, Rafael Ojeda-Flores, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Werner Ulrich, Melinda K. Rostal, Alexandra Petrosov, Joel Garcia, Najmul Haider, Nathan Wolfe, Tracey Goldstein, Stephen S. Morse, Mahmudur Rahman, Jonathan H. Epstein, Jonna K. Mazet, Peter Daszak and W. Ian Lipkin
Additional contact information
Simon J. Anthony: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Ariful Islam: EcoHealth Alliance
Christine Johnson: One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California
Isamara Navarrete-Macias: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Eliza Liang: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Komal Jain: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Peta L. Hitchens: One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California
Xiaoyu Che: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Alexander Soloyvov: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Allison L. Hicks: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Rafael Ojeda-Flores: Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria
Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio: EcoHealth Alliance
Werner Ulrich: Nicolaus Copernicus University
Melinda K. Rostal: EcoHealth Alliance
Alexandra Petrosov: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Joel Garcia: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Najmul Haider: International Centre for Diahorreal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b)
Nathan Wolfe: Metabiota, Inc. One Sutter
Tracey Goldstein: One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California
Stephen S. Morse: Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Mahmudur Rahman: IEDCR (Institute of epidemiology and disease control research), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Bangladesh
Jonathan H. Epstein: EcoHealth Alliance
Jonna K. Mazet: One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California
Peter Daszak: EcoHealth Alliance
W. Ian Lipkin: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms9147

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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9147

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