Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems

Jakob Runge (), Vladimir Petoukhov, Jonathan F. Donges, Jaroslav Hlinka, Nikola Jajcay, Martin Vejmelka, David Hartman, Norbert Marwan, Milan Paluš and Jürgen Kurths
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Jakob Runge: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Vladimir Petoukhov: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jonathan F. Donges: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jaroslav Hlinka: Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Nikola Jajcay: Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Martin Vejmelka: Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
David Hartman: Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Norbert Marwan: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Milan Paluš: Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Jürgen Kurths: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth’s climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied to a data set of atmospheric dynamics, the method identifies several strongly uplifting regions acting as major gateways of perturbations spreading in the atmosphere. Additionally, the method provides a stricter statistical approach to pathways of atmospheric teleconnections, yielding insights into the Pacific–Indian Ocean interaction relevant for monsoonal dynamics. Also for neuroscience or power grids, the novel causal interaction perspective provides a complementary approach to simulations or experiments for understanding the functioning of complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in increasing their resilience to shocks or extreme events.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9502

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