Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

Natalya Gomez (), David Pollard and David Holland
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Natalya Gomez: Center for Atmosphere Ocean Sciences, Couratnt Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
David Pollard: Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
David Holland: Center for Atmosphere Ocean Sciences, Couratnt Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9798

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