Thermodynamic controls of the Atlantic Niño

Hyacinth C. Nnamchi (), Jianping Li (), Fred Kucharski, In-Sik Kang, Noel S. Keenlyside, Ping Chang and Riccardo Farneti
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Hyacinth C. Nnamchi: University of Nigeria
Jianping Li: College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University
Fred Kucharski: Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
In-Sik Kang: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University
Noel S. Keenlyside: Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Ping Chang: Texas A&M University, College Station
Riccardo Farneti: Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Prevailing theories on the equatorial Atlantic Niño are based on the dynamical interaction between atmosphere and ocean. However, dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere models poorly simulate and predict equatorial Atlantic climate variability. Here we use multi-model numerical experiments to show that thermodynamic feedbacks excited by stochastic atmospheric perturbations can generate Atlantic Niño s.d. of ∼0.28±0.07 K, explaining ∼68±23% of the observed interannual variability. Thus, in state-of-the-art coupled models, Atlantic Niño variability strongly depends on the thermodynamic component (R2=0.92). Coupled dynamics acts to improve the characteristic Niño-like spatial structure but not necessarily the variance. Perturbations of the equatorial Atlantic trade winds (∼±1.53 m s−1) can drive changes in surface latent heat flux (∼±14.35 W m−2) and thus in surface temperature consistent with a first-order autoregressive process. By challenging the dynamical paradigm of equatorial Atlantic variability, our findings suggest that the current theories on its modelling and predictability must be revised.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9895

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