Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

Wolfram Mauser (), Gernot Klepper, Florian Zabel, Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Hank, Birgitta Putzenlechner and Alvaro Calzadilla
Additional contact information
Wolfram Mauser: Ludwig-Maximilians-University
Gernot Klepper: Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Florian Zabel: Ludwig-Maximilians-University
Ruth Delzeit: Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Tobias Hank: Ludwig-Maximilians-University
Birgitta Putzenlechner: Ludwig-Maximilians-University
Alvaro Calzadilla: Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Nature Communications, 2015, vol. 6, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today’s cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers’ profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today’s global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s’ demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms9946 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms9946

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9946

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().