Climate change not to blame for late Quaternary megafauna extinctions in Australia

Frédérik Saltré (), Marta Rodríguez-Rey, Barry W. Brook, Christopher N Johnson, Chris S. M. Turney, John Alroy, Alan Cooper, Nicholas Beeton, Michael I. Bird, Damien A. Fordham, Richard Gillespie, Salvador Herrando-Pérez, Zenobia Jacobs, Gifford H. Miller, David Nogués-Bravo, Gavin J. Prideaux, Richard G. Roberts and Corey J. A. Bradshaw
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Frédérik Saltré: The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide
Marta Rodríguez-Rey: The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide
Barry W. Brook: School of Biological Sciences, Private Bag 55, University of Tasmania
Christopher N Johnson: School of Biological Sciences, Private Bag 55, University of Tasmania
Chris S. M. Turney: School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of NSW
John Alroy: Macquarie University
Alan Cooper: The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide
Nicholas Beeton: School of Biological Sciences, Private Bag 55, University of Tasmania
Michael I. Bird: Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Studies, James Cook University
Damien A. Fordham: The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide
Richard Gillespie: Centre for Archaeological Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong
Salvador Herrando-Pérez: The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide
Zenobia Jacobs: Centre for Archaeological Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong
Gifford H. Miller: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Geological Sciences, University of Colorado
David Nogués-Bravo: Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen
Gavin J. Prideaux: School of Biological Sciences, Flinders University
Richard G. Roberts: Centre for Archaeological Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong
Corey J. A. Bradshaw: The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide

Nature Communications, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian diversity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensemble-hindcasting approach to 659 Australian megafauna fossil ages. When coupled with analysis of several high-resolution climate records, we show that megafaunal extinctions were broadly synchronous among genera and independent of climate aridity and variability in Australia over the last 120,000 years. Our results reject climate change as the primary driver of megafauna extinctions in the world’s most controversial context, and instead estimate that the megafauna disappeared Australia-wide ∼13,500 years after human arrival, with shorter periods of coexistence in some regions. This is the first comprehensive approach to incorporate uncertainty in fossil ages, extinction timing and climatology, to quantify mechanisms of prehistorical extinctions.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10511

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