The exposure of the Great Barrier Reef to ocean acidification

Mathieu Mongin (), Mark E. Baird, Bronte Tilbrook, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Mike Herzfeld, Karen Wild-Allen, Jenny Skerratt, Nugzar Margvelashvili, Barbara J. Robson, Carlos M. Duarte, Malin S. M. Gustafsson, Peter J. Ralph and Andrew D. L. Steven
Additional contact information
Mathieu Mongin: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Mark E. Baird: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Bronte Tilbrook: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Richard J. Matear: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Andrew Lenton: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Mike Herzfeld: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Karen Wild-Allen: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Jenny Skerratt: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Nugzar Margvelashvili: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Barbara J. Robson: CSIRO Land and Water
Carlos M. Duarte: Red Sea Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Malin S. M. Gustafsson: Plant Functional Biology and Climate Change Cluster (C3), Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney
Peter J. Ralph: Plant Functional Biology and Climate Change Cluster (C3), Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney
Andrew D. L. Steven: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Nature Communications, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is founded on reef-building corals. Corals build their exoskeleton with aragonite, but ocean acidification is lowering the aragonite saturation state of seawater (Ωa). The downscaling of ocean acidification projections from global to GBR scales requires the set of regional drivers controlling Ωa to be resolved. Here we use a regional coupled circulation–biogeochemical model and observations to estimate the Ωa experienced by the 3,581 reefs of the GBR, and to apportion the contributions of the hydrological cycle, regional hydrodynamics and metabolism on Ωa variability. We find more detail, and a greater range (1.43), than previously compiled coarse maps of Ωa of the region (0.4), or in observations (1.0). Most of the variability in Ωa is due to processes upstream of the reef in question. As a result, future decline in Ωa is likely to be steeper on the GBR than currently projected by the IPCC assessment report.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10732

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