Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities

Chengjin Chu (), Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Kris M. Havstad, Mitchel P. McClaran, Debra P. Peters, Lance T. Vermeire, Haiyan Wei and Peter B. Adler
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Chengjin Chu: SYSU-Alberta Joint Lab for Biodiversity Conservation, State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol and School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University
Andrew R. Kleinhesselink: Utah State University
Kris M. Havstad: USDA, ARS, Jornada Experimental Range and Jornada Basin Long Term Ecological Research, New Mexico State University
Mitchel P. McClaran: School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
Debra P. Peters: USDA, ARS, Jornada Experimental Range and Jornada Basin Long Term Ecological Research, New Mexico State University
Lance T. Vermeire: USDA-ARS, Fort Keogh Livestock and Range Research Laboratory, Miles City, Montana 59301, USA
Haiyan Wei: School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
Peter B. Adler: Utah State University

Nature Communications, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Theory predicts that strong indirect effects of environmental change will impact communities when niche differences between competitors are small and variation in the direct effects experienced by competitors is large, but empirical tests are lacking. Here we estimate negative frequency dependence, a proxy for niche differences, and quantify the direct and indirect effects of climate change on each species. Consistent with theory, in four of five communities indirect effects are strongest for species showing weak negative frequency dependence. Indirect effects are also stronger in communities where there is greater variation in direct effects. Overall responses to climate perturbations are driven primarily by direct effects, suggesting that single species models may be adequate for forecasting the impacts of climate change in these communities.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11766

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