Demographic routes to variability and regulation in bird populations

Bernt-Erik Sæther (), Vidar Grøtan, Steinar Engen, Tim Coulson, Peter R. Grant, Marcel E. Visser, Jon E. Brommer, B. Rosemary Grant, Lars Gustafsson, Ben J. Hatchwell, Kurt Jerstad, Patrik Karell, Hannu Pietiäinen, Alexandre Roulin, Ole W. Røstad and Henri Weimerskirch
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Bernt-Erik Sæther: Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Vidar Grøtan: Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Steinar Engen: Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Tim Coulson: University of Oxford
Peter R. Grant: Princeton University
Marcel E. Visser: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)
Jon E. Brommer: University Hill, University of Turku
B. Rosemary Grant: Princeton University
Lars Gustafsson: Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University
Ben J. Hatchwell: University of Sheffield
Kurt Jerstad: Aurebekksveien 61
Patrik Karell: Environmental and Marine Biology
Hannu Pietiäinen: Bird Ecology Unit, University of Helsinki
Alexandre Roulin: Biophore, University of Lausannne
Ole W. Røstad: Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Henri Weimerskirch: Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé

Nature Communications, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract There is large interspecific variation in the magnitude of population fluctuations, even among closely related species. The factors generating this variation are not well understood, primarily because of the challenges of separating the relative impact of variation in population size from fluctuations in the environment. Here, we show using demographic data from 13 bird populations that magnitudes of fluctuations in population size are mainly driven by stochastic fluctuations in the environment. Regulation towards an equilibrium population size occurs through density-dependent mortality. At small population sizes, population dynamics are primarily driven by environment-driven variation in recruitment, whereas close to the carrying capacity K, variation in population growth is more strongly influenced by density-dependent mortality of both juveniles and adults. Our results provide evidence for the hypothesis proposed by Lack that population fluctuations in birds arise from temporal variation in the difference between density-independent recruitment and density-dependent mortality during the non-breeding season.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12001

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