See–saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian–Australian summer monsoon

Deniz Eroglu (), Fiona H. McRobie, Ibrahim Ozken, Thomas Stemler, Karl-Heinz Wyrwoll, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Norbert Marwan and Jürgen Kurths
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Deniz Eroglu: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Fiona H. McRobie: School of Earth and Environment, The University of Western Australia
Ibrahim Ozken: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Thomas Stemler: School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Western Australia
Karl-Heinz Wyrwoll: School of Earth and Environment, The University of Western Australia
Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach: Sediment- and Isotope Geology, Institute for Geology, Mineralogy & Geophysics, Ruhr-Universität Bochum
Norbert Marwan: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Jürgen Kurths: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Nature Communications, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract The East Asian–Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth’s hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could ‘lock in’ possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see–saw relationship over the last 9,000 years—with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12929

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