Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China

Chuang Zhao, Shilong Piao (), Yao Huang, Xuhui Wang, Philippe Ciais, Mengtian Huang, Zhenzhong Zeng and Shushi Peng
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Chuang Zhao: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
Shilong Piao: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
Yao Huang: State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xuhui Wang: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
Philippe Ciais: LSCE, UMR CEA-CNRS, Bat. 709, CE, L'Orme des Merisiers
Mengtian Huang: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
Zhenzhong Zeng: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
Shushi Peng: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University

Nature Communications, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Wheat growth is sensitive to temperature, but the effect of future warming on yield is uncertain. Here, focusing on China, we compiled 46 observations of the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature change (SY,T, yield change per °C) from field warming experiments and 102 SY,T estimates from local process-based and statistical models. The average SY,T from field warming experiments, local process-based models and statistical models is −0.7±7.8(±s.d.)% per °C, −5.7±6.5% per °C and 0.4±4.4% per °C, respectively. Moreover, SY,T is different across regions and warming experiments indicate positive SY,T values in regions where growing-season mean temperature is low, and water supply is not limiting, and negative values elsewhere. Gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project appear to capture the spatial pattern of SY,T deduced from warming observations. These results from local manipulative experiments could be used to improve crop models in the future.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13530

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