Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

Peter Good (), Ben B. B. Booth, Robin Chadwick, Ed Hawkins, Alexandra Jonko and Jason A. Lowe
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Peter Good: Met Office Hadley Centre
Ben B. B. Booth: Met Office Hadley Centre
Robin Chadwick: Met Office Hadley Centre
Ed Hawkins: NCAS-Climate, University of Reading
Alexandra Jonko: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Jason A. Lowe: Met Office Hadley Centre

Nature Communications, 2016, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13667

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